Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 2.278985 2.413378 2.559365 2.731278 2.930315 3.156304 3.436591
2025-05-11 2.129212 2.299592 2.493235 2.733735 3.030825 3.395543 3.894940
2025-05-18 1.993932 2.179005 2.395242 2.673095 3.031648 3.497263 4.186339
2025-05-25 1.911641 2.109938 2.347177 2.661320 3.083336 3.662108 4.591407
2025-06-01 1.841816 2.048861 2.301290 2.643895 3.120153 3.805945 4.997141
2025-06-08 1.780736 1.993566 2.257106 2.622273 3.145135 3.931965 5.407326
2025-06-15 1.746757 1.969288 2.249635 2.647343 3.236884 4.173359 6.118073
2025-06-22 1.674093 1.891914 2.167970 2.562839 3.155499 4.116043 6.193365
2025-06-29 1.638333 1.860139 2.144523 2.557970 3.194167 4.268863 6.808990
2025-07-06 1.587062 1.806016 2.088342 2.502118 3.146868 4.259687 7.022655
2025-07-13 1.573172 1.799949 2.096385 2.539460 3.251802 4.551423 8.258273
2025-07-20 1.570161 1.807760 2.123312 2.606080 3.412556 4.993916 10.573443
2025-07-27 1.543533 1.784091 2.106801 2.608000 3.466867 5.238583 12.728807
2025-08-03 1.518876 1.762009 2.091256 2.609955 3.521065 5.500150 15.969033
2025-08-10 1.478723 1.717448 2.041710 2.554940 3.463866 5.473419 17.101833
2025-08-17 1.454140 1.693412 2.020678 2.544227 3.489260 5.668755 21.932459
2025-08-24 1.429595 1.668608 1.997458 2.528402 3.502897 5.838227 29.540329
2025-08-31 1.405381 1.643522 1.972834 2.508760 3.506862 5.983326 43.588196
2025-09-07 1.394356 1.636315 1.973980 2.531526 3.598513 6.431791 NaN
2025-09-14 1.356863 1.591155 1.917492 2.454687 3.476782 6.150872 224.928474
2025-09-21 1.340458 1.575241 1.904087 2.450251 3.507166 6.396569 NaN
2025-09-28 1.312375 1.542290 1.864345 2.399307 3.434822 6.267733 NaN
2025-10-05 1.307857 1.542420 1.874074 2.433381 3.548360 6.855947 NaN